Patterns Suggest Rate Of Vermillion Housing Growth

The City’s population has also increased since the year 2000. However, as home to the University of South Dakota, some of the past population growth may have been due to post-secondary students, including people living in university housing or dormitories.

Age-based demographic data had not yet been released from the 2020 Census at the time of the study, so estimates were used instead. These estimates continue to show a large number of young adult residents in the City, consistent with USD students.

Vermillion is the largest single community in Clay County, and directly impacts countywide totals. Based on the 2020 Census, the remainder of Clay County outside of Vermillion has added a few households over the past decade, but actually had a small decrease in population, as fewer people tend to live in the average household.

Summary of Growth Projections

Although demographic projection information exists from different sources, a primary method for projecting future household growth is based on the continuation of past patterns.

The housing study was conducted earlier this year by Community Partners Research, Inc. of Faribault, Minnesota. Findings of the study were presented to the Vermillion City Council earlier this summer by Steve Griesert, a representative of the research firm.

The analysts have examined projection data from national sources such as Applied Geographic Solutions and Esri, but in general these forecasts underestimate the growth potential of the City. As a result, trend-based calculations have been used for anticipating future growth.

Going forward, the analysts have proceeded with the assumption that the City of Vermillion has the potential to add an average of 48 households per year through the year 2026. Some additional growth is possible for the remaining jurisdictions in Clay County, but most of the added households will be within the City of Vermillion.

The City will continue to have a large number of younger adult households, as many USD students live in conventional housing options in the City. However, the study notes that age-based projections from Esri expect that the household count within most of the younger and middle-aged adult households will remain relatively stable through the year 2026.

There is some projected growth in the senior age ranges, age 65 and older. However, compared to most communities in South Dakota, Vermillion has a small distribution of senior citizens as a percentage of all households.

The study projects that the largest household growth from 2021 to 2026 in Vermillion will occur among households in the 65 and older age ranges with an increase of 204 households. From 2021 to 2026, Vermillion is also projected to gain 113 households in the 25 to 44 age ranges.

The 15 to 24 age range is projected to lose 12 households. Also, the 45 to 64 age ranges are forecast to lose 29 households.

The study states: “While projections can be informative in planning for change, it is important to note that they may be altered in the future. To the extent that Vermillion can continue to attract in-migration, the demographic profile of future residents may not always match historical patterns, and it is possible that more young adults will move to the area.”

Findings On Unit Demand By Age And Type Of Housing

Based on the household by age projections, the changing age composition of Vermillion’s population through the five-year projection period will have an impact on demand for housing.

Age 24 and Younger - The projections used for this study expect a decrease of 12 households in the 15 to 24 age range through the year 2026. Past tenure patterns indicate that a significant majority of these households in Vermillion will rent their housing. A small loss of households in this age range should mean that rental demand from younger households will remain relatively stable during the projection period.

25 to 34 Years Old - The projections show a substantial increase in this age cohort of 55 households by 2026. Within this age range households often move from rental to ownership housing. An increase in the number of households within this age range will mean additional demand for both first-time home buyer and rental opportunities.

35 to 44 Years Old - This 10-year age cohort has a projected gain of 58 households between 2021 and 2026 in Vermillion. In the past, this age group had a high rate of home ownership in Vermillion. Households within this range often represent both first-time buyers and households looking for trade-up housing, selling their starter home for a more expensive home.

45 to 54 Years Old - The projections for this age range show a loss of 13 households through 2026. This age group historically has had a high rate of home ownership and will often look for trade-up housing opportunities. With marginal household losses in this age group, the demand for trade-up housing from this age range will remain relatively stable.

55 to 64 Years Old - The projections show a decrease of 16 households in this 10-year age range by the year 2026. Age-appropriate housing, such as town house or twin home units, is often well suited to the life-cycle preferences of this age group, as no maintenance/low maintenance housing has become a popular option for empty-nesters. Also, a percentage of households in this age range will seek trade-up housing.

65 to 74 Years Old - Strong household growth is expected in Vermillion within this age range, with the projections showing an increase of 76 households by the year 2026. While this group will begin moving to life-cycle housing options as they age, the younger seniors are still predominantly homeowners. Once again, preferences for age-appropriate units should increase from household growth within this age cohort.

75 Years and Older - A very substantial gain of 128 households is projected among seniors. Seniors in this age range often seek senior maintenance-free independent housing or senior housing with services options.